2015 Fantasy Football ADP: Over and Under Valued WRs
Mike Evans TB: Current ADP 2.07 — Evans had an outstanding year his rookie season in 2014. Over 1000 yards and 3rd most receiving touchdowns in the NFL with 12. However 2015 brings a lot of new faces to Tampa that affect Evans. Dirk Koetter is the new OC and we all know the Buccaneers are placing their future in rookie QB Jameis Winston’s hands. It may take a little while for it all to click in Tampa and the fact that Evans is going over proven choices at wide out like Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, TY Hilton, and Alshon Jeffery is crazy to me. Evans had more than 5 catches in just 3 games last year, 3 straight games from weeks 9-11. Outside those 3 games he had few than 5 grabs in 10 of 12 games. He also hit 100 yards in just 3 weeks, again from week 9 to 11. He scored 75 of his 177 standard points from weeks 9 to 11; that’s 42 of his points in 3 games. Drafting him as one of your top 2 picks isn’t the smartest idea.
Keenan Allen SD: Current ADP 4.11 — Allen is a curious cat at WR this year. While he saw more targets and had more catches in 2014 than his rookie season of 2013, his yards decreased by 26% and his touchdowns cut in half from 8 to 4. I know with Antonio Gates gone for the first 4 games that someone needs to absorb those targets but Ladarius Green will be his opportunities. Plus pass-catching specialist Danny Woodhead is back this season from injury and we can’t forget about Malcom Floyd who lead the Chargers with 856 receiving yards and the wide outs with 6TDs. I can’t trust Allen as a WR2 or potential WR1 depending on how you pick your first 3 rounds.
Kevin White CHI: Current ADP 6.03 — He hasn’t see the field virtually all offseason, may start the season on the PUP list and hasn’t practiced with the first team to this juncture. You really want an unproven rookie who isn’t practicing over Brandon Marshall or Andre Johnson? I’d take the chance on Geno Smith throwing to Marshall before I’d roll the dice on a guy who can’t even play against his own team.
DeSean Jackson WSH: Current ADP 6.11 — He already injured himself hitting an inanimate object. Pierre Garcon has been slid into Jackson’s prominent wide receiver spot this offseason, and Jackson is basically more and more useless as the team gets closer to the end zone. Everyone knows DeSean has big play potential on every snap but fantasy wise you take a huge risk trusting him as an every week starter in your WR corps. Over the last 3 seasons he’s never scored double-digit points in 3 straight games. In games since the start of 2012 when he fails to hit 10+ fantasy points, Jackson is averaging just 4 points per game. Not good enough for me to take him over Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, or even the other major burner in the NFL Mike Wallace.
Percy Harvin BUF: Current ADP 12.12 — He’s asked Rex Ryan about potentially becoming a cornerback. Need I say more?
Golden Tate DET: Current ADP 5.03 — Tate had himself a career year in 2014. His career highs in catches (99) and yards (1331) helped him have a career high fantasy finish as the 11th best PPR wide receiver and the 13th best WR in standard leagues. While Megatron missed 3 games last year and didn’t seem to be 100% at anytime of the year he is fully expected to be healthy and look like the Calvin Johnson we’re used too. That may scare away some people from Tate but not me. Tate may not get over 140 targets again this year with Johnson healthy but Tate will still excel with defenses shifting their focuses on Megatron. Even if Calvin goes dow, Tate showed last year he can step up and be a true WR1 in fantasy football; averaging 116 yards on 10 catches and 2 total scores in the 3 games Johnson missed last year. I’d take Tate round 5 over guys going ahead of him like Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Kelvin Benjamin.
Pierre Garcon WSH: Current ADP 12.02 — Just two years ago we saw Garcon snag 5 or more balls in every game and end 2013 with 113 catches. 2014 saw Garcon just disappoint fantasy owners continuously so I can understand why his ADP has dropped so far for 2015, however a lot of good things are going on for Pierre. He’s been moved to the prominent receiver role, the spot DeSean Jackson was in last year when he had over 400 more yards than Garcon and double the touchdowns. Not only will Garcon be a bigger feature in the offense this season, but Jackson is already hurt which mean if he misses any regular season time Pierre will see targets by the boatload! I don’t expect him to get back to 2013 form but 80 grabs for 1000+ yards at 5 or more TDs is not unrealistic.
Steve Smith BAL: Current ADP 13.03 — While Smith’s stats died down during the back half of last season to have an ADP of round 13 for this guy is absolutely insane! Last year Smith had his 8th career 1000 yard season and the 3rd in the last 4 years. He’s scored at least 4 touchdowns each of the last 4 years including 6 with Flacco and the Ravens last season. Smith is the only WR we can even fully trust right now in Baltimore. Torrey Smith is gone and rookie Breshad Perriman has missed more practices than Allen Iverson so he has basically 0 connection with Joe Flacco. Veteran tight end Owen Daniels is also gone and being replaced by a rookie in Maxx Williams. As it stands today Smith is the only pass catcher that has a proven NFL track record and has spent time on the field with Flacco in camp. Oh and Smith said he’s retiring come years end, you think he is going to go out with a bad year under his belt? No chance … ice up son!
Doug Baldwin SEA: Current ADP 17.09 — We all know Seattle isn’t a team to rely on the pass however Baldwin is still the teams WR1 and he’s going in the 17th?! Wilson has been throwing more and more as the years go by; he had a 7% increase in pass attempts from year 1 to 2 and an 11% increase from 2013 to last year, so odds are he will be slinging the ball a few more times than his 452 attempts in 2014. Of course Jimmy Graham will be the first look but more attention on him and BeastMode still in the back field means Baldwin should be more open than he ever has been. Baldwin has had 50+ catches and 775+ yards in 3 of his 4 NFL years and has scored at least 3 touchdowns all 4 years. Excellent value pick to use a late round flyer on.
Eddie Royal CHI: Current ADP 19.08 — Skip Kevin White in the 6th and wait on Eddie Royal. Royal has had 600+ yards and 7+ scores each of the last two seasons in San Diego, not to mention he posted career highs in receptions (91) and yards (980) in his only season playing with Jay Cutler. Royal is definitely a sleeper in fantasy football this year and taking a risk on him on your bench near the end of your draft could pay huge dividends in 2015.