Have A Money Draft

There are certain phrases that are way overused in all aspects of life, and in the fantasy football world two that always are thrown around like a football at your family reunion are “sleeper” and “bust.” What defines a sleeper or a bust? Technically can’t any player be both? What if you draft Alvin Kamara first overall with the hopes he can give you 300 point son the season and he goes off for a stupid 500, wouldn’t that make his numbers “sleeper-esque?” What if you draft Patrick Mahomes with the intentions of him giving you 400 points again but he only racks up 290 and finishes 3rd among quarterbacks instead of on top, could you argue that he had a “bust” of a year? So instead of listing players as either sleepers or busts I like to do things a little differently. I put these guys in three different categories: Overpaid, Undervalued, and Clearance. Overpaid are guys that will not perform up to where you draft them at, undervalued are guys I would take a chance on drafting slightly higher than their average draft position, and clearance are players you can scoop up late as a bench piece that could end up seeing your starting line up and contributing in a major way! Forget that old “sleeper” and “bust” crap and step into 2019 with the monster and take a gander at my “overpaid, undervalued, and clearance” players for this upcoming season!* Continue reading →

Call Me Crazy But … Larry Fitzgerald Will Be a Failure

Fantasy football is full of trash-talking, proving your better than your friends (at least at one thing, but we all know once you’re in a league everything else you do with your league mates becomes a competition), and bold predictions. Everyone thinks they have the hottest takes, wildest theories, or know something you don’t know as they try to look like the smartest guy in the room. Well, I am here to shut that shit down, no exceptions (shout out my man Negan)! This is a series I have titled “Call me crazy but …” in which I like to take the popular names, stats, or takes from the general consensus of the fantasy big-wigs and community and tear them apart like I play quarterback for the Steelers. Continuing the 2019 edition of the series we take a look at a guy who has been one of the best in the business for the last decade and a half, and while his last few seasons say he’s still got it, I say he doesn’t; sorry Mr. Larry Fitzgerald …

Call me crazy but … Larry Fitzgerald Will Be a Failure in 2019. Continue reading →

Where’s Waldo?

Each year, once the fantasy football season is over the first thing we all look forward to is free agency and trades for the next season. We as a society of sports fans and fantasy players are obsessed with change, new places, and our athletes moving around and how that will impact the team they left almost as much as the team they join. With 2018 far behind us and the 2019 fantasy see on the horizon, it’s time to look at who moved to a new team and how that will impact their fantasy status for this year! So, who moved and where did they go? Let’s check it out in a piece I like to call “Where’s Waldo?” I have also attached a “fantasy impact” number for each player from 1-10; with 1 being minimal-at-best impact to 10 being potential stud impact!

QUARTERBACKS Continue reading →

Target Analysis Breakdown: Tight Ends

1. Zach Ertz PHI: Ertz set tight end records last year in targets (152) and receptions (116) while becoming just the 3rd tight end with 150+ targets and the 5th end with better than 100 grabs in a single season. His catch rate of 74% was 3rd best at the position (behind just Austin Hooper and Kyle Rudolph). Ertz had his first 1,000-yard season (1,163) and his 8 touchdowns tied his personal best which was set just a year before in 2017. No one loves throwing to Ertz more than Carson Wentz and with Nick Foles gone and the Eagles banking on a healthy Wentz it’s not crazy to think Ertz can break the records he just set in 2018. The debate will rage as to who should be the first tight end drafted between Ertz and the number two on this list …

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WIDE RECEIVER TARGET ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN

1. Julio Jones ATL: One can make the argument Julio is the best wide out in the game and in the fantasy world. Over the last four seasons he is one of two receivers to catch at least 420 balls on at least 650 targets; Antonio Brown being the other. Jones has a catch rate of just under 65% in that span with just under 10 yards per target as he’s racked up 6,401 yards; more than any other wide out in that period. Last year Jones had the 3rd most receptions (113) behind Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins, and Julio’s 7.1 catches per game were 4th best among receivers last season. Jones hasn’t had a season with fewer than 80 grabs and 1,400 yards since 2013! He may not get the love and respect that AB or OBJ receives but all it takes is a few extra trips to the end zone and he will be leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the receiver pack. Don’t sleep on Quintorris Lopez Jones!

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1. Christian McCaffrey CAR: Call him “Carolina Drake” cause CMC just went back-to-back in this category! McCaffrey became just the 8th running back in NFL history to have consecutive seasons with 100+ targets; spoiler alert, another member of this elite club is on this list as well. If McCaffrey can manage 100 or more looks again in 2019, and barring injury that shouldn’t be much of a challenge for him, he would be just the second back to every hit that number in three or more straight years; Marshall Faulk did it for five straight from 98-02. CMC had the 5th most targets (124) in a season by a running back, while his 107 receptions and catch rate of 86.3% are both tops in NFL history. In my mind there are two guys who should go with the top overall selection in fantasy drafts this year and McCaffrey is one of them; number two on that list will be on this list very, very shortly.

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GREEN = EASY MATCH UP (Bottom 10 teams in fantasy PPG allowed to said position)

RED = DIFFICULT MATCH UP  (Top 10 teams in fantasy PPG allowed to said position)

WHITE = NEUTRAL MATCH UP (Middle 12 teams in fantasy PPG allowed to said position)

The following is the Strength of Schedule (S.O.S) breakdown for Tight Ends. Players at the position who will be impacted are listed, as well as how many good, neutral, and difficult match ups each team will see in 2019. A further breakdown of each teams playoff match ups is included as well.

Don’t forget that this break down is intended for drafting of two similar players near their appropriate ADP (average draft position). Just because the Jaguars are near the top of this list and the Eagles are near the bottom doesn’t mean you should draft James O’Shaughnessy over Zach Ertz.

* The breakdown was derived as followed:

• A Good match up is against a team that finished in the bottom 10 in fantasy PPG (points per game) vs TEs in 2018. Good match ups were awarded +1.
• A Neutral match up is against a team that finished in the middle 12 in fantasy PPG vs TEs in 2018. Neutral match ups were awarded 0.
• A Difficult match up is against a team that finished in the top 10 in fantasy PPG vs TEs in 2018. Difficult match ups were awarded -1.
• Once points were added up the higher the total number, the higher the teams ranking. (Example: Delanie Walker has 7 Good (+7); 3 Difficult (-3); and 6 Neutral (0) match ups for a total of +4)

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